I wrote one of these a while back but the nominations have been announced, the Golden Globes have happened, and some stuff has changed. I’m going to go through pretty much every single category at this year’s awards; who should win and who will win. I will list the odds in the should win/will win bit at the start of each category – which are accurate at the time of posting. But you want to find the best odds for each category, go to Oddschecker. I’m not going to list all the films/actors nominated either because the Academy just dishes out nominations for the hell of it, except to black people obviously. Bunch of racist old bastards. Right, less do dis.
Should Win: The Revenant (2.88)
Will Win: Spotlight (1.86)
This category became a lot more interesting when The Revenant picked up the top award at the Globes. I did predict success for Spotlight at the Globes, but what I may have done is mixed up my awards shows. The Globes are the fun brother of the Oscars, and they went with the more left-field choice with Inarritu’s epic. Spotlight is this year’s Argo. An ensemble film with serious-faced actors fighting for a noble cause. The Academy loves this shit and I think they will reward it here. Two of the films in this year’s list of best picture nominations are already in my top 10 favourite films of all time. The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road are two absolutely fucking baller films. The Martian is also a quality picture, but a comedy it ain’t.
Should Win: George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (5.5)
Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant (1.72)
Yes, The Revenant is the best film at this year’s awards, but what George Miller has done in restoring a franchise no one thought they’d see again is unbelievable. Inarritu’s team is astounding and he leans heavily on his cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki to achieve maximum impact with his films (we’ll talk more about him later), but Miller is the undoubted leader of the Mad Max project. Getting all those vehicles in the same place doing what he wants, co-ordinating the best stunts we’ve seen in a film ever, while also getting great performances from his actors was a remarkable achievement. However, the Academy will give it to Inarritu for the 2nd year in a row. Back-to-back in this category has only been done by Joseph L. Mankiewicz and John Ford – back in the 1940s and ’50s. So this would be huge if it happens this year, and it will.
Should Win: Matt Damon – The Martian (67.0)
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (1.08)
I’ve talked about it enough and had been recommending Leo at 3.2 a few months back when Fassbender was favourite for playing Steve Jobs for some bizarre reason in some TV-quality biopic. However, The Revenant is not about good acting and that’s why I love it. Matt Damon’s performance was better than Leo’s. It’s a shit year in general for leading actors. Leo wins. Bet it if you want but it’s not really worth it anymore. I guess it’s better than bank interest though.
Should Win: Brie Larson – Room (1.29)
Will Win: Brie Larson – Room (1.29)
Great performance by Larson in this. This film is as good as TV movies can get. This film won’t be remembered in 5-10 years. It’ll be a quiz question. I saw some of the films the other nominees are in too, average enough offering. It hasn’t been a great year for acting.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: Sly – Creed (1.61)
Will Win: Sly – Creed (1.61)
Rylance’s odds worry me a little because the Academy might try to give Spielberg’s film something. However, actors vote on this award and they love Sly. Rocky is one of the greatest films ever and Stallone’s performance here brings it all back home. Creed is extremely emotional if you grew up watching those films. This is a great film and Stallone gives probably his best ever performance. Back this all the way. However, I think Walton Goggins gave the year’s best supporting actor performance in The Hateful Eight, and he wasn’t even nominated!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight (18.0)
Will Win: Rooney Mara – Carol (1.61)
Jennifer Jason Leigh knocks it out of the park in Tarantino’s classic. Without her charisma in that role, that film dies. Rooney Mara wins this award for some reason, don’t know what that reason is though. She just looks around the place in Carol.
Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki – The Revenant (1.33)
Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki – The Revenant (1.33)
This is why Inarritu is getting such success lately. Film is principally about moving the camera and this guy moves it like a baller. He is the best in the business, probably the best ever. Should win. Will win. 3rd year in a row too! That ain’t never been done!
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should Win: Ennio Morricone – The Hateful Eight (1.44)
Will Win: Ennio Morricone – The Hateful Eight (1.44)
Oh you best believe he’s back. This is Morricone’s first Western score in something like 40 years and it is a belter. When that song comes on at the start of Tarantino’s film, it gives the picture a haunting and morbid progress that stays throughout. John Williams did a Star Wars score too but Tarantino has been screwed by Disney enough for one year. This is a lock.
Right, that’s all the categories I care to write in depth on. To round this out I’ll just list the award, what will win, and the odds. This will make 22 picks for the Oscars in total. You’re bloody welcome.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short (1.66)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Inside Out (1.1)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Sanjay’s Super Team (1.85)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Body Team 12 (1.6)
BEST FILM EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road (1.6)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Son of Saul (1.12)
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Ave Maria (1.55)
Mad Max: Fury Road (1.33)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mad Max: Fury Road (1.25)
BEST SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road (1.5)
BEST SOUND MIXING
Mad Max: Fury Road (1.65)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mad Max: Fury Road (1.8)
So, Mad Max: Fury Road is going to win 6 bloody Oscars!! They’re all the “minor” categories that no one cares about, but saying that a Mad Max film is taking home the most Academy Awards has a very nice ring to it. What a film!